Above the 49: No big names expected to move north on deadline day

Hockey Betting Lines

02/21/2012 - Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NHL trade deadline on Feb. 27 promises to be one of the most compelling deadline days in years, but not so much if you happen to be a fan of one of the seven teams north of the border.

Among the big names rumored in play this season include Columbus' Rick Nash and Jeff Carter, Anaheim's Corey Perry and Bobby Ryan, Phoenix's Shane Doan and Washington's Alexander Semin, but don't expect any of them to be swapping zip codes for postal codes in the near future.

Only one Canadian team - Vancouver - has virtually guaranteed itself of a spot in the postseason picture, but the Canucks are nowhere in the discussion when it comes to one of the marquee names floating around.

Vancouver would ideally like to add a top-four defenseman or a power forward before the deadline, but it's hamstrung by salary cap concerns and is not likely to part with backup netminder Cory Schneider, who is the Canucks' biggest asset in a potential deal. Mason Raymond's name also has come up in trade speculation.

Toronto has been floated as a potential destination for Nash and would have the ability to maneuver his contract into its lineup, but the Maple Leafs simply don't possess the assets Columbus will demand in return for dealing away its poster boy - namely an elite forward (with the exception of Phil Kessel), a blue-chip prospect and a franchise netminder to replace the struggling Steve Mason.

The Leafs are barely hanging on to a spot in the top eight in the Eastern Conference and may be in selling mode by the time the deadline rolls around. Their 6-2 spanking at the hands of the Canucks on Saturday should quash any thoughts about them being a legitimate Cup contender even with the addition of Nash or another top-tier forward.

Selling season has already begun in Montreal with the Canadiens shipping defenseman Hal Gill to the Nashville Predators last Friday. They'll be trying to move out several more impending unrestricted free agents before the deadline in forwards Andrei Kostitsyn and Travis Moen and defenseman Chris Campoli.

Meanwhile, a major fire sale is expected in Edmonton with Ales Hemsky at the top of the exodus list.

Calgary and Ottawa are likely to remain in a holding pattern through the deadline with the exception of perhaps a few minor upgrades with playoff spots within grasp, but not to the point where they'd be willing to mortgage the future.

Winnipeg has done an admirable job sticking around in the playoff conversation, but the Jets are more likely to go the route of a seller as opposed to be a deadline buyer.

The last Canadian team to add a marquee player at the deadline was the Calgary Flames, who plucked top-line center Olli Jokinen from the Coyotes back in 2009.

Jokinen had eight goals and 15 points in 19 regular-season games down the stretch for the Flames, guiding them to a fifth-place finish in the Western Conference. He was the team leader in playoff points that season, notching five points (2-3-5) in six games in their opening-round series loss to the Chicago Blackhawks.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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